Arithmetic of the Political Seism in Turkey!

INFO-TURK

November 5, 2002

The Justice and Development Party, (AK), Islamist, gained a victory without precedent at legislative elections and is going to form the next government of Turkey. The AK gained 34.27% of the votes and obtained 363 of the 550 seats at the Parliament, according to the results announced by public TV TRT.

The Republican People's Party (CHP, social democrat), a secular formation led by Deniz Baykal obtained 19.39% of the votes and 178 seats in the next Parliament.

Last nine seats were obtained by the independent candidates.

None the others 16 political parties, mainly the three parties of the outgoing tripartite coalition led by Bulent Ecevit, the Democratic Left Party (DSP, nationalist left), the Nationalist Action Party (MHP, ultra nationalist) and the Motherland Party (ANAP, center-right), could not obtain the minimum necessary of 10% of the votes to be represented at the Parliament.

It is the case also for the Democratic People's Party (DEHAP), which obtained 6.22% of the votes at the national level and more than 40% in several Kurdish provinces in the East.

So, the political choice of 45% of the voters will not be represented at the National Assembly.

Here a comparative table of the provisional results obtained by each political family in 1999 and 2002:

Rise in votes and seats:

ISLAMISTS (Total of 4 parties):

1999: 15.64% (111 seats) 2002: 37.40%, (363 seats) Gains: +21.76% (+252 seats)

AK (Justice and Development Party,): 2002: 34.27% (+363 seats) SP (Prosperity Party): 2002: 2.48% BTP (Independent Turkey Party): 0.40% MP (Nation's Party): 1999: 0.26%; 2002: 0.20% (-6%) FP (Virtue Party): 1999: 15.38% (111) seats; 2002: banned (-111)

INDEPENDENTS:

1999: 0.93% (3 seats) 2002: 1.02% (9 seats) Gains: +0.09% (+6 seats)

Fall in votes and seats:

CENTER-LEFT (Total of 3 parties):

1999: 30.85% (136 seats) 2002: 21.80% (178 seats) Loss and gains: -9.05% (+42 seats)

CHP (Republican People's Party): 1999: 8.79%; 2002: 19.39% (+10.60%); +178 seats DSP (Democratic Left Party) 1999: 22.06%; 2002: 1.21% (-20.85%); -136 seats YTP (New Turkey Party): 2002: 1.20%

Fall in votes and loss of all seats:

CENTER-RIGHT (Total of 4 parties):

1999: 26.81% (171 seats) 2002: 15.60% (0 seats) Losses: -11.21% (-171 seats)

ANAP (Motherland Party): 1999: 13.22%, 2002: 5.12% (-8.10%) (- 86 seats) DYP (Correct Way Party): 1999: 12.00%; 2002: 9.55% (-2.60%) (-85 seats) LDP (Liberal Democratic Party):1999: 0.41%; 2002: 0.20% (-0.21%) YP (Fatherland Party): 2002: 0.90%

EXTREME-RIGHT (Total of 3 parties):

1999: 19.45% (129 seats) 2002: 16.60% (0) Losses: -3.05% (-129 seats)

MHP (Nationalist Action Party): 1999: 17.98%; 2002: 8.34% (-9.56%) (129 seats) BBP (Grand Union Party):1999: 1.47%; 2002: 0.90% (-0.57%) GP (Young Party): 2002: 7.24% Rise or fall in votes, no gain in seats

DIFFERENT LEFT-WING PARTIES (Total of 4 parties) 1999: 6.14% (no seats) 2002: 7.33% (no seats)

DEHAP (Democratic People's Party), mainly Kurdish: 1999: 4.73%; 2002: 6.22% (+1.49%) IP (Worker's Party): 1999: 0.19%; 2002: 0.53% (+0.34%) TKP (Communist Party of Turkey), former SIP: 1999: 0.13%; 2002: 0.19% (+0.06%) ODP (Freedom and Solidarity Party): 1999: 0.84%; 2002: 0.33% (-0.51%)

Two principal reasons of the political upheaval

The AK, founded a little more than one year ago on ashes of a prohibited Islamist party (FP¨), took part for the first time in elections. The surveys credited it with some 25% of the voices and the dimension of its opening constitutes the principal surprise of the poll.

Led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a former mayor of Istanbul, declared ineligible by justice because of a judgment for "incentive with religious hatred", the party is suspected by the laic authorities of the country of wanting to put in question the bases of the constitution of the country.

Mr. Erdogan, 48 years, celebrated Sunday evening a bitter-sweet victory because it will not be able to become Prime Minister, the function should be attributed to a deputy.

The elections had been advanced 18 months because of a governmental crisis caused by the bad health of outgoing the Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, 77 years, and by divisions within the coalition which it directs since the legislative elections of April 1999.

The elimination of the great traditional parties in Parliament is explained in particular by a double protest by the popular strata of the big cities and Anatolia against:

- the economic policy disastrous for the workers, the peasants and the small and medium-sized enterprises, imposed by the IMF. The recession resulted in more than one million new unemployed, 50% fall of the Turkish Lira compared to the Dollar, climbing of interest rates and a chronic inflation.

- the frequent interventions of the military in the political and social life under the pretext of "protecting secularity and the Kemalist system" for maintaining their predominance on the country and the interdiction of opposition parties by the justice under the pressure of the National Security Council (MGK).

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