Should Iraqi Kurds Call Turkish Bluff?

By Dr. Mohammed M.A. Ahmed

November 15, 2002

In collusion with the media, the Turkish government has embarked on a relentless misinformation campaign against the Kurds of Iraq with a view to spreading fear and despair among them. A day does not go-by without Turkey threatening their peaceful Kurdish neighbors with occupation unless they abandon their call for the creation of a federal system of government in Iraq. Turkey has often used the Turkmen front to disturb the peace and tranquility in southern Kurdistan in order to distort the image of the Kurdish Regional Government. Its so-called historical claim on the Kurdish region has raised considerable concern among the Iraqi Kurds who have already suffered unimaginable pain and losses in the hands of Saddam Hussein since the early 1970s. Turkey does not seem to be concerned with the security and stability of the Kurdish region, but it wants to place its hands on its oil and water resources. Turkey’s design is to create a Turkish republic in southern Kurdistan, similar to that in Cyprus, by placing some 5 million Kurds under the hegemony of about 0.5 million Turkmen.

Turkey claims that the creation of a Kurdish entity in southern Kurdistan-Iraq might encourage its Kurdish population to demand the same rights. If it has any faith in its democratic institutions, Turkey should test the true desire and aspirations of its Kurdish population through its electoral system. Why should Turkey fear the outcome of its own so-called democratic processes? The Kurdish activists in Turkey have already renounced armed struggle in exchange for democracy and political freedom of which they have been deprived for about eighty years. There is no justification for a state with the second largest army in the world and with up-to-date sophisticated military hardware to fear a handful of peaceful Kurdish activists. Turkey should be able to pacify its Kurdish population by allowing them to freely participate in local and national elections and by letting them choose their own representatives for the Turkish parliament. In its recent elections, Turkey used all possible means to deprive some 20 million Kurds of representation in its parliament.

Turkey has so far failed to stop the Kurds of southern Kurdistan from building their infant democratic institutions, in which various ethnic and religious groups have actively participated. Instead of helping the Iraqi Kurds to build a stable democracy next door, they are trying to squash it by using all possible means. Though the Iraqi Kurds are no match for the Turkish military power, they could certainly give Turkey a bloody nose. In the event of war against Saddam, Turkey is likely to occupy the rich oil fields of Kirkuk and Mosul under the pretext that it wants to prevent a large-scale Kurdish exodus to Turkey. The occupation threats of Turkey is very real and is of major concern to the Kurds, who have already suffered greatly in the hands of Saddam Hussein. Without justice there will be no peace in the region. It is in the interest of regional peace and stability that Turkey exercises greater self-restrain and pays due respect to the Kurdish people, who helped them establish the present state of Turkey.

In the event of a United States war against Iraq, it is unlikely that the Kurds will be able to prevent the Turkish invasion of their land. Through its persistent threats and misinformation, Turkey is partly responsible for spreading the seeds of discord among members of the Iraqi opposition groups and among the neighboring countries regarding the future form of government after Saddam Hussein. In order to confuse the issue, some opposition groups and individuals contend that federalism should be based on regional demarcation of territories and not on ethnicity. The Kurdish region, where the Kurds have lived for thousands of years, happened to have clear historical boundaries. It is quite obvious that some quarters do not wish to see the Kurds have any respite from continued repression by their neighbors. If the Turkish threats persist, it is likely that the gains made by the Iraqi Kurds since 1991 will vanish, especially if the two major Kurdish political parties remain divided.

The Kurds must realize that time is of the essence. In order to gain control of their own destiny, the Kurds might have to decide soon, before the likely United States military attack against Iraq, whether they should stand by their demand for a federal system of government or to continue appease Turkey without any reciprocity. The postponement of elections as well as the unification of the two local governments in southern Kurdistan for after regime change in Iraq might be detrimental to the Kurdish cause. The rumors have it that it would be more convenient for the United States to have the Kurdish enclave divided between the two major Kurdish political parties until after the regime change in Baghdad. This would give the United States more flexibility to address Turkey’s concern about the possible emergence of a federal system of government in Iraq. Preservation of the status quo would enable the United States to apportion governorships to different political leaders as Britain did in Iraq after World War I. It is not likely that the United States will undersell Turkey in favor of gaining Kurdish friendship.

In view of its narrow vision of the future map of the region, Turkey would most likely create many obstacles for the Kurds to cross. Until now, the Iraqi Kurds have failed to convince Turkey that changes in their future political status will improve and will not weaken Turkey’s future security and stability. What is there to lose for the Kurds of Iraq if they openly and firmly called for autonomy, or a federal system of government, or for self-determination in Iraq? Why should the Kurds be afraid of Turkish occupation of southern Kurdistan? It might be in the long-run interest of the Kurdish nation to have southern Kurdistan occupied by Turkey. This will not only reintegrate the two largest parts of Kurdistan under one occupation, but it will also strengthen and energize the overall Kurdish political movement. Instead of dealing with some 20 million Kurds, Turkey would have to counter the demands of some 25 million Kurds for greater freedom. This will certainly give Turkey’s officials aconsiderable amount of indigestion.

It is time that the Iraqi Kurdish politicians place aside their party interests and embark on a mission of salvaging the future of their nation in southern Kurdistan-Iraq. Diplomacy, cool heads, pragmatism, and dialogue are certainly preferable to confrontations. However, Turkey has totally exploited the weak bargaining position of the Kurds in its own total advantage. The relationship with Turkey has been mostly one sided, with the exception of a limited trade across its borders and granting travel permits to some Kurdish travelers. The Kurdish appeasement policy of the past eleven years has not yielded any political gain to the Kurds of southern Kurdistan. On the contrary, it has politically divided and weakened the Kurds and has strengthened Turkey’s argument that the emergence of a Kurdish entity in northern Iraq will threaten the safety and security of the neighboring countries. The recent bold rebuff of Turkish officials by Masud Barzani might have been well over-due.